HORIZON-02 · LEAD-TIME FORECAST
Scenario planner for long-lead items
Stress-test delivery dates against tariff, regulatory and demand shocks. Ranges are confidence bands fitted on Maximo demand + OEM backlog signals.
ASSET CLASS · PIPELINE
TENARIS / WELSPUN · $420M
42" X70 Line Pipe
API 5L X70 · FBE coated · 220 mi
Mill slot pressure from US LNG buildout
ACTIVE SCENARIOS
US Section 232 expansion on imported steel
LEAD TIME — MONTHS
HISTORY 2023–2025 · FORECAST 2026–2027DELIVERY BY SCENARIO · 2027-Q4 TARGET
AGENT RECOMMENDATION
Tariff +15%
Worst-case delivery: 49.6 mo
Lock tonnage with Tenaris this quarter. Pre-tariff PO captures ~7.6 mo of float.
CONFIDENCE 0.88 · RECOMPUTED LIVE